Free market report, October 2026
Gallium, Germanium and Indium: State of the Market 2026
Where these three metals come from, who can buy them, and what they cost inside and outside China. A 38-page report for buyers, suppliers and policymakers, published ahead of China's 27 November decision on exports to the United States.
The numbers that matter
What's inside
Thirteen chapters. Each opens with its finding and its number, and closes with what it means for buyers, suppliers and policymakers.
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1
Key findings
Thirteen findings, each with its number, and where this report departs from the August 2026 consensus.
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2
Three small metals that matter
Worth about US$1.8 billion a year at Chinese prices, they sit inside radar, phones, fibre networks and almost every screen. None has a mine of its own.
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3
From rock to metal
Less than 10 per cent of the gallium in mined bauxite is recovered. Geology is not the limit; plant, capital and policy are.
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4
Purity
About 60 per cent of gallium is refined to 6N or 7N. Outside China the premium is for location, not purity.
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5
Supply today
China ran its gallium plants at 56 to 75 per cent of capacity in 2025, leaving 300 to 700 t a year idle.
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6
The supply pipeline
Stated Western gallium capacity reaches 248 t a year by the end of 2028. We expect about 99 t of output that year.
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7
Demand and end uses
Gallium is two markets: semiconductors outside China, magnets and solar wafers inside it. The magnet story is overstated.
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8
Trade flows
China's reported gallium exports fell from 94 t in 2022 to a run-rate of about 45 t a year, and germanium from about 44 t to about 12 t.
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9
Export controls and policy
The 2023 dual-use licence decides who can buy, and the 27 November 2026 expiry does not touch it.
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10
Prices
Ex-China gallium costs eight to nine times China's price without VAT. Germanium costs 1.6 to 3.7 times; indium trades near parity.
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11
Market structure and provenance
Three markets, three shapes. Since the controls, documented origin is what sells at a premium.
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12
Australia
Australia mined about 97 Mt of bauxite and 1.1 Mt of zinc in 2025 and produced none of the three metals.
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13
Outlook
Supply outside China catches up only if China licenses more metal. Three scenarios to 2030 and a dated watch list.
Who it is for
Buyers
Which price tier you can actually reach, how long a licensed lot takes, and the five documents worth asking a supplier for.
Suppliers and producers
Where the Western supply wave lands, what each scenario does to price in 2027 and 2028, and which new tonnes are already spoken for.
Policymakers and analysts
What a stockpile, price floor or contract for difference would cost, how to read the customs data, and the signals to watch to January 2027.
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About this report
Published by Gallium Sales, Perth, Western Australia. Gallium Sales sources gallium and germanium to specification for Australian industry, research and education, documents the end use of every lot, and publishes intelligence on the markets that supply both metals.
Data as at 6 October 2026. We will publish an update after China's decision on 27 November 2026. Questions and corrections: Jason Davis, Director, gallium@galliumsales.com.au.
General information about commodity markets. It is not financial product advice, legal advice or an offer to buy or sell any metal. See the report for the full disclaimer.